Intro:

Welcome! I've been investing since I was young and, like any investor, I've made my fair share of mistakes. But each misstep has been a stepping stone to understanding the market better. I'm learning and growing continuously in this journey.

This space is dedicated to sharing my investment portfolio and the lessons I've picked up along the way. Here, you'll get a glimpse into my investment strategies, decision-making process, and my approach to navigating the ever-changing market. Let's learn and grow together in the world of investing.

I'm curating my very own Investing list on twitter X 

Two main strategies and portfolios:

My investments are mainly divided between my own investments (more active, and more risky) and the family ones (less active, less risky):

Investment allocation is (more or less) as follows:

My own portfolio:

Debt: 0%

Cash: ≅0%

Indexed Funds: ≅30%

Pension Funds: ≅20%

Angel Investing: ≅0%

Individual Stocks: ≅20%

Crypto: ≅15%

Others: ≅10%

Family portfolio:

Debt: 0%

Cash: ≅5%

Indexed Funds: ≅55%

Mutual Funds: ≅35%

Individual Stocks: ≅5%

Index Funds:

With all my experience, my biggest allocation is Index Funds, where I don't do anything. I just define my risk profile and schedule weekly (or monthly) bank transfers that are automatically invested for me. The best ones in Spain are Indexa Capital. I've been investing with them since the beginning. If you join them using this link, we both benefit from 15.000 € without fees.

Individual stocks:

Where I have more fun is managing my stocks porfolio. I find myself shifting from growth to value (even to dividends), should be I'm aging ;-) and now I'm less and less active and only buy when I want to hold forever. I have my portfolio at Self Bank and moving it slowly to MyInvestor which seems more modern, and with lower fees. They even have a cash account giving a 2,5% interest up to 75K. If you join them using the code: P4OSV we'll both get 20€

Recently I had to open an account at Interactive Brokers, because they allow me to buy Canadian stocks and I wanted to invest in $TINY.V

My personal stock portfolio 2024 Q1 analysis

As we close the first quarter of 2024, it's time to reflect on the performance (and my own). 

Portfolio Dynamics: A Mixed Bag

My investment canvas portrays a blend of giants, dividend kings and some asymmetric bets. In order: $TSLA, $SHOP, $GOOGL, $cash, $META, $MELI, $ABNB, $MC.PA, $ASML.AS, $ADYEN, $NKE, $UPS, $COIN, $CRWD, $BAM, $BN, $SQ, $BX, $TINY, $ORGN.

Tracking properly since May 2019, my portfolio has sustained a commendable 20.28% CAGR, with an average holding period stretching to 2.09 years. 

The Quarter at a Glance

My personal (I have family and son portfolios too) portfolio witnessed a modest 2.23% net gain, marking a year-to-date increase of ... drums ... +2.23% ... 🤣. Despite the broader indices basking in green, my portfolio's growth was curtailed primarily by the underperformance of my biggest position, $TSLA.

The unveiling of my cash position, now meticulously tracked, offers a fresh perspective and flexibility in capital allocation.

Maneuvers and Reflections

This quarter, I honed in on optimization rather than expansion:

- Trimming the Excess: I reduced my stake in $GOOGL by 15%, a strategic move to recalibrate its dominance in my portfolio and to reflect my loss in confidence in the stock. I'm sure it will keep being a leader for years to come, but it's big and slow at the moment. Similarly, $META saw a reduction of one-third, reflecting a reassessment of its value proposition amidst a personal crises of my businesses dealing with Facebook Ads and their poor management. 

- Bolstering Convictions: I significantly increased my holdings in $ABNB (by 40%), $MC.PA (by 65%), and $MELI (by 50%), reaffirming my belief in their long-term prospects.

Triumphs and Tribulations

The quarter's champions were $COIN (+52.4%), $META (+38.8%), and $ADYEN (+34.4%), each delivering stellar performances that underscored the merit of strategic conviction. On the flip side, $ORGN (-39.0%), $TSLA (-29.3%), and $NKE (-13.4%) bore the brunt of market volatility and sector-specific headwinds.

Evergreen Victories

The long-term stars of my portfolio, $TSLA (+829%), $SHOP (+546%), and $COIN (+214%), continue to exemplify the power of visionary investing and the compounding effect of time.

Forward Gaze

As we navigate through 2024, I remain vigilant, ready to prune $SQ and possibly $BX while eyeing opportunities to augment my stakes in $ASML, $NKE, $UPS, $BAM, or $BN. The potential initiation of positions in $P911.DE or $PSNY hints at an evolving strategy keen on embracing new frontiers.


April 2024

Essentialism in Investing: A Personal Journey to Financial Freedom


Have you ever felt overwhelmed by the sheer volume of investment advice out there? It's like standing in the middle of a bustling market, with everyone shouting their offers and promises at you, recommendations, predictions, 10Q’s, 10K’s, investor presentations, macro, news … But what if I told you that the secret to successful investing doesn't lie in doing more, but in doing less? 


It’s like surfing - it's not about catching every wave but choosing the right ones. This concept, inspired by Greg McKeown's Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less, transformed not just my approach to investing but my entire lifestyle.


The Essence of Essentialism in Investing


The core idea of Essentialism, as I discovered, is breathtakingly simple yet profound: "Less but better." It's about identifying the few things that matter the most and dedicating your focus and resources to them. In the context of investing, this means prioritizing investments that align with your long-term goals and values, rather than chasing every new trend or opportunity that comes your way.


The Essentialist Investor's Path: Explore, Eliminate, Execute


1. Explore and Evaluate: Just as a seasoned surfer studies the waves before making a move, an essentialist investor takes the time to explore and evaluate the vast ocean of investment opportunities. This involves creating space to think, listen, and discern the trivial many from the vital few.


2. Eliminate: Once you've identified your "waves" – those investments that promise the greatest alignment with your goals – the next step is to eliminate everything else. This is not always easy. It requires the courage to say no to potentially good opportunities to focus on the truly great ones.


3. Execute: With your focus narrowed, executing your investment strategy becomes almost effortless. You're not constantly second-guessing or jumping from one asset to another. Instead, you're steadily building towards your financial goals with discipline and clarity.


A Personal Story of Essentialism in Action


My journey towards embracing essentialism in investing began with a simple realization: I was spreading myself too thin, trying to catch every wave. Reflecting on my surfing experiences, I remembered how waiting for the right wave always led to the most exhilarating rides. Applying this to investing, I started to selectively focus on a few key areas – ones that I understood and believed in. This wasn't just about minimizing effort; it was about maximizing impact and satisfaction.


The Transformative Power of Saying "No"


One of the most empowering aspects of essentialism is mastering the art of saying "no." Early in my investing journey, I found myself saying yes to various opportunities, swayed by the fear of missing out. But as I embraced essentialism, I learned the power of a graceful "no." This shift wasn't just liberating; it was strategically sound, protecting me from overcommitment and allowing me to channel my resources into investments that truly mattered.


Practical Steps Towards Essentialist Investing


1. Take Time to Reflect: Regularly set aside time to assess your investment portfolio. Are these investments serving your long-term goals? Or are they distractions?


2. Simplify Your Portfolio: Focus on investments that you understand deeply and believe in strongly. This might mean consolidating your holdings or choosing index funds for broader, less hands-on market exposure.


3. Create a Routine: Develop a routine for reviewing and managing your investments. This could involve quarterly check-ins, annual rebalancing, or setting up automated contributions to your chosen funds.


4. Embrace the Power of Small Wins: Celebrate the milestones along your investing journey. Each step forward, no matter how small, is progress towards your financial independence.


5. Focus on What's Important Now: Keep your investment strategy aligned with your current life stage and financial goals. What's right for you now might be different five years down the line.


In Conclusion


Applying the principles of essentialism to investing has been a game-changer for me. It's a strategy that champions quality over quantity, focus over fragmentation. As we navigate the complex world of investing, let's remember the wisdom of less but better. It's not about having a piece of every pie, but savoring the slices that matter most to us.


Remember, the journey to financial independence is not a race; it's a carefully curated path. By applying the lessons of essentialism, we can make each step on this path deliberate, meaningful, and, ultimately, more rewarding.


March 2024

2023 Q4 analysis


Hey there, fellow investors and enthusiasts! As we wrap up the final quarter of 2023, I can't help but feel a sense of exhilaration. After the rollercoaster that was 2022, this year has been a refreshing change, and the fourth quarter especially stands out. So, grab a cup of your favorite beverage, and let's dive into the details of my personal stock portfolio update.


Portfolio Overview: A Diverse Array of Winners


My portfolio is a mix of giants and rising stars: $TSLA, $SHOP, $GOOGL, $META, $NKE, $MELI, $UPS, $ASML.AS, $ABNB, $ADYEN, $MC.PA, $CRWD, $COIN, $BAM, $BN, $SQ, $BX, $TINY, $ORGN


Since I began tracking in May 2019, the portfolio has achieved a 20.48% CAGR. The average holding period for these stocks? A prudent 1.85 years.


Quarterly and Year-to-Date Performance: A Reason to Celebrate


This quarter, my portfolio soared with a 14.41% net gain, culminating in a year-to-date (YTD) increase of +67.31%. This performance underscores the importance of resilience, patience, and strategic thinking in investing.


The biggest positions in my portfolio are a testament to this approach:


1. $TSLA - 22.5%

2. $SHOP - 15.3%

3. $GOOGL - 14.7%

4. $META - 8.4%

5. $NKE - 4.4%


The Art of Waiting: Lessons Learned


This quarter reiterated a vital lesson: the power of being methodic. The key is to polish and stick to your method, resist temptations, and learn the art of patience. In investing, sometimes the best action is inaction.


Key Actions and Reflections


- Trimming $SHOP: I reduced my position by 21%. Despite its high price, my belief in Shopify remains strong.

- Exiting Positions: I sold off my entire holdings in $U, $PAH3.DE, and $SE. It was a tough call, but necessary.

- Observant Waiting: With a 4% cash position, I'm on the lookout for new opportunities.


Winners and Losers: The Ups and Downs


Winners of the quarter include:


1. $COIN - +131.65%

2. $SQ - +74.76%

3. $ADYEN - +65.31%


And the less fortunate ones:


1. $ORGN - -34.69%

2. $TINY - -33.63%

3. $ABNB - -0.78%


Biggest Victories So Far


- $TSLA: +1555% (CAGR 37%)

- $SHOP: +653% (CAGR 33%)

- $GOOGL: +113% (CAGR 11%)


Looking Ahead: Strategy for the Coming Quarters


As we move forward, I'm keeping a close eye on $SQ and $TSLA for potential trims. On the flip side, I'm considering beefing up my stakes in $ABNB, $MC.PA, $ASML, $BAM, $BN, and $NKE. New potential ventures like $P911.DE, $ENPH, or $PSNY are also on my radar.


In Conclusion


This quarter has been a vivid reminder that optimism in investing isn't just a mindset; it's a strategy backed by mathematics and psychology. Here's to embracing optimism and looking forward to what the future holds in the investing world!


Remember, investing is not just about the numbers; it's a journey of continuous learning, adapting, and growing. Stay tuned, stay invested, and let's navigate this exciting world together.



January 2024

My Way to FI: Decoding the True Essence of Financial Independence


Picture this: You're lounging on a sun-drenched beach, sipping a chilled caipirinha, without a care in the world. Sounds like the ultimate Financial Independence (FI) dream, right? But let’s hit the pause button on this idyllic TV ad scene. In reality, FI is far more than endless vacations and exotic cocktails. 


Financial Independence is about creating a life where your financial assets work for you, providing comfort and peace of mind which allows you to freely decide how you spend your time:

 

Join me as I debunk some common FI myths and share my personal journey towards true financial freedom.

Financial Independence isn't just a fancy term; it's a beacon of hope for many. Imagine a life where the income from your investments consistently surpasses your expenses. That's FI in a nutshell. It's not about striking gold in a single lucky investment; it's about the steady rhythm of smart choices and consistency.

When I started investing as a youngster, I made every mistake in the book. But guess what? Each mistake was a stepping stone. Without those errors, my learning journey, no matter how much I read about money and investing, wouldn't have been as rich.


FI isn't about earning a six-figure income. It's about smartly managing your finances, spending way less than you earn, and investing the rest. It's about making your money work for you, not the other way around. I've learned that a dollar saved and invested wisely is more valuable than a dollar earned and spent impulsively.


To me, Financial Independence means peace of mind. It's about having enough to live comfortably, not extravagantly. I recall explaining this to my son, who thought FI meant living like a millionaire. I clarified that it's about the freedom to enjoy life without financial stress – a concept that resonates with people of all ages.

For those starting their FI journey, here are some tips:


How do I measure FI?

There are several ways to measure FI, but they all hinge on one critical factor: knowing your expenses. More specifically, I recommend tracking your expenses over the trailing last 12 months. This approach helps smooth out variability and accounts for one-time expenses and unforeseen costs.


From this basis, a general rule is to multiply your trailing last 12 months' expenses by 25. This is essentially the same as following the 4% rule. This rule suggests that "if an individual can cover their annual expenses by withdrawing 4% of their portfolio savings (per year), the individual is assumed to have achieved financial independence."


Let's put this into perspective. Say your trailing last 12 months' expenses are $50,000. To reach Financial Independence, you'd need $1,250,000 "in the bank". While I track this method, I've also refined my personal approach, which is a bit more nuanced.


I calculate the total difference between my cash and investments now and from 12 months ago, then subtract all forms of income received in the last 12 months (like salaries, other earnings, dividends, etc.). This calculation gives me what I call the Financial Escape Velocity, or in other words, my personal gauge for Financial Independence.


I’m working on reaching FI during 2024 a reality. It will be difficult, but it’s doable. 


Conclusion:

And there you have it – my take on Financial Independence. It's a path filled with learning, growth, and a fair share of excitement. Remember, it's about enjoying the journey as much as reaching the destination. So, keep exploring, keep investing, and let's ride this journey together!.


December 2023

3rd Quarter 2023 Stock Portfolio Update: Riding the Waves of an Unpredictable Market


Hello everyone! It’s that time again to update you on the performance of my personal stock portfolio for the 3rd quarter of 2023. This marks my second quarterly update after discontinuing my monthly reports.


Portfolio Overview

My stock portfolio comprises a diverse range of assets including:

- Tech Giants: $TSLA, $GOOGL, $SHOP, $META

- Consumer Goods: $NKE, $UPS

- Fintech and E-commerce: $MELI, $ABNB, $SQ, $COIN

- Various Others: $ASML.AS, $MC.PA, $ADYEN, $CRWD, etc.


Returns

- Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) since May 2019: 17.49% 

- Quarter returns: -7.13% net 

- Year-To-Date (YTD) returns: +43.28% 


My Largest Positions

1. Tesla ($TSLA): 24.7%

2. Google ($GOOGL): 14.9%

3. Shopify ($SHOP): 14.8%

4. Meta Platforms ($META): 7.7%

5. Nike ($NKE): 4.2%


Commentary: A Hectic Quarter

This quarter was a busy one for me. Perhaps, too busy. I found myself getting a bit too active, making purchases a tad too early and hesitating to cut off some long-standing but non-performing positions. The market, true to form, remained unpredictable.

At the moment, I find myself a bit too invested. My current strategy involves waiting for the market to recover before trimming some positions and potentially adding to existing stocks.


Actions During the Quarter

- Added 80% to my UPS position: Yes, the timing wasn’t great.

- New Positions: Initiated holdings in $BX, $BN, $ORGN, and $ADYEN. The last two were reactionary moves following significant and unexplained drops.

- Exits: Sold off my entire holdings in $MTLS and $SE. I lost faith in their long-term viability.


Winners and Losers of the Quarter

Winners

1. CrowdStrike ($CRWD): +13.96%

2. Google ($GOOGL): +9.32%

3. Airbnb ($ABNB): +7.06%


Losers

1. SolarEdge ($SEDG): -51.86%

2. Square ($SQ): -33.51%

3. Unity ($U): -27.71%


Biggest Winners So Far

1. Tesla ($TSLA): +1567% (CAGR 39%)

2. Shopify ($SHOP): +427% (CAGR 27%)

3. Google ($GOOGL): +99% (CAGR 10%)


What’s Next?

I'm closely watching to sell positions in $U, $SEDG, $PAH3, and possibly trim $SHOP, $SQ, and maybe $TSLA. I’m also considering increasing positions in $NKE, $BAM, $ABNB, and $MC.PA. Looking ahead, I might also start new positions in $P911.DE, $ENPH, or $PSNY.

And that's a wrap for this quarter's report. Until next time, keep investing smartly!

#investinginpublic #quarterreport


October 2023

Navigating the Investing Spectrum: A Journey to a Holistic Approach



Let me take you back to a time when Spain was buzzing with the excitement of the telecom boom. It was the late 90s, and a young teenager was bitten by the investing bug. Eager to seize the opportunity, he dipped his toes into the stock market, hoping to ride the wave of quick gains and easy riches. Little did he know, this experience would become the cornerstone of his investing journey.


With stars in his eyes and optimism in his heart, he decided to invest in TERRA, a telecommunications company that seemed poised for boundless growth. After all, the allure of the telecom boom was hard to resist, and he was believed to have cracked the code to making money in the stock market. However, as the story often goes, reality had other plans.


The telecom bubble burst, leaving him and countless others in financial turmoil. TERRA, once a symbol of potential, became a harsh lesson in the perils of chasing fads and failing to understand the true nature of the businesses behind the stocks. It was a bitter pill to swallow, but he was determined to uncover the secrets to successful investing.


Undeterred by the setback, he embarked on a quest for knowledge. He devoured books on technical analysis, trading strategies, and investment philosophies. He tuned in to radio programs (no podcasts those days), eagerly absorbing every nugget of wisdom shared by seasoned investors. He was determined to understand the intricacies of the market and make more informed decisions.


However, despite his relentless pursuit of expertise, he found himself in a perplexing situation. The more he learned, the more he realized how little he knew. His attempts at trading and timing the market only led to more losses. The excitement that once fueled his investing endeavors was now replaced by frustration and disappointment.


In the midst of this introspection, he decided to give up. He finished an Engineering University degree, worked for others, and started a family. It was then that he recognized entrepreneurship as his true calling. He founded a couple of companies, paid off his mortgage, and found himself at a crossroads—ready to rekindle his passion for investing.


Returning to the world of investing, after many, many years, he embarked on a new chapter. He started with technology and growth stocks, eager to catch the excitement of the market once again. He even delved into Angel Investing, hoping for a different outcome. Yet, these experiences, though challenging, became invaluable lessons that shaped his journey as an investor.


Through ups and downs, he continued to learn. He studied the strategies of history's greatest investors, discovering that the path to wealth was not in quick wins but in patient, long-term thinking. He embraced the philosophy that becoming rich quickly was an illusion, and that the true key was to build wealth slowly and consistently.


His journey eventually led him to a fundamental shift in his approach. He began to invest in value, with a focus on the long term. His goal was to purchase stocks that he could hold onto indefinitely, allowing them to grow steadily over time. He had come full circle, learning that sustainable wealth was built on a foundation of patience, knowledge, and a commitment to continuous learning.


The teenager has become a mature adult and his story is mine. In fact it’s my story with investing.


In the ever-evolving world of investing, finding a path that resonates deeply can be both enlightening and challenging. Over the years, my journey through the intricate landscape of investment strategies has led me to explore a wide spectrum of viewpoints. I've come to appreciate the wisdom and insights of legendary figures like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, as well as the innovative approaches of investors like Cathie Wood. While these might seem like polar opposites, I've discovered that they offer valuable lessons that can harmoniously coexist in a well-rounded investing philosophy.


Embracing Classic Wisdom: Buffett, Munger, and More


The timeless principles laid out by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have been guiding lights for many investors, myself included. Their emphasis on value investing and the importance of long-term focus resonates deeply with my approach. I've found immense value in understanding the intrinsic worth of businesses, seeking quality, and patiently allowing investments to flourish over time.


Moreover, I've gained insights from the meticulous strategies of investors like Monish Pabrai, Howard Marks and Guy Spier. These individuals have honed the art of making well-informed decisions, often relying on extensive research and patience. Their dedication to understanding businesses from the ground up aligns with my belief in the power of knowledge in investing.


Exploring the Cutting Edge: Cathie Wood and Beyond


On the other side of the spectrum, I've found myself captivated by the innovation-driven mindset of Cathie Wood. Her unyielding commitment to exploring emerging technologies and groundbreaking industries reflects a willingness to step into uncharted territory. Cathie's work underscores the significance of staying ahead of the curve and recognizing the transformative potential of disruptive trends.


In my journey, I've also been influenced by the insights of macro forecasters like Raoul Pal. His ability to dissect global economic trends has offered me a broader perspective on the interconnectedness of markets and the forces that shape them.


A Common Thread: Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel, and My Path Forward


As my journey continues, I find my philosophy aligning more closely with investors like Brian Feroldi and Brian Stoffel. Their emphasis on long-term thinking, understanding the businesses they invest in, and the conviction to hold through market fluctuations resonates profoundly with me. While their strategies might diverge, the underlying principles remain steadfast. I find their approach more relatable to my current self. 


Lately, I've been diving deeper into the value investing approach. The principles of seeking intrinsic value, assessing businesses based on their fundamentals, and patiently waiting for the market to recognize their worth have captivated my attention. This journey into value investing has broadened my perspective, allowing me to see the interconnectedness between seemingly opposing strategies.


In Conclusion: A Holistic Approach to Investing


In a world of extremes, my investing philosophy is an evolving tapestry woven from a myriad of influences. It's not about choosing sides, but rather about recognizing the richness that comes from embracing diverse strategies. Value investing and growth-focused strategies are not mutually exclusive; they complement each other in crafting a well-rounded approach to wealth creation.


As I move forward, my aim is to strike a harmonious balance between timeless wisdom and innovative thinking. The journey is ongoing, and I'm excited to continue learning, adapting, and weaving together the threads of insight that come my way. In this ever-shifting landscape, I find solace in my holistic approach—one that draws from the wisdom of legends and the visionaries of tomorrow.


So, whether it's following the footsteps of Howard Marks on the value side or being inspired by the growth-oriented perspective of Cathie Wood, my journey continues to be a blend of thoughtful exploration and embracing the unknown. 


Here's to the adventure ahead! 🌟🚀


September 2023

Reimagining Investing: Learning from Nature's Timeless Wisdom. My summary of "What I learned About Investing from Darwin"



In "What I Learned About Investing from Darwin" Pulak Prasad, an equity fund manager and founder of Nalanda Capital, shares valuable insights on investing inspired by principles from evolutionary theory. Prasad's investment philosophy revolves around being permanent owners of high-quality businesses and minimizing risks before maximizing returns. Drawing parallels between the natural world and the business world, he outlines key lessons for successful investing.


One of the fundamental lessons Prasad derives from evolutionary theory is the importance of avoiding big risks. In nature, living organisms prioritize survival over everything else, and businesses should do the same. To minimize risk, Prasad's team at Nalanda avoids investing in companies with high debt, unaligned owners, or fast-changing industries. They focus on being "better rejectors" by forgoing potentially attractive opportunities if the risk of capital loss is high.


Prasad emphasizes the significance of buying high-quality businesses at a fair price. He believes that a sustained high return on capital employed (ROCE) is a strong indicator of a company's competitive advantage. ROCE serves as a starting point for their analysis, helping them identify businesses with stellar management teams, effective capital allocation, and strong competitive positions.


By focusing on the ultimate causes of business success rather than short-term fluctuations, Prasad applies principles from evolutionary biology. Nalanda ignores proximate causes of stock price movements, such as macroeconomic or industry-related events, and instead focuses on analyzing business fundamentals. This allows them to invest in high-quality businesses during times of market panic, exploiting short-term fluctuations for long-term gains.


Another concept Prasad adopts is "convergence," which involves identifying recurring patterns of success and failure in the business world. By seeking similarities in successful business templates, Nalanda invests in proven businesses rather than individual companies. They use the "outside view" approach, akin to convergence, to avoid falling prey to seeing patterns where none exist and missing unique opportunities.


To differentiate between honest and dishonest signals from businesses, Prasad employs the "handicap principle." Honest signals, similar to costly traits in the natural world, indicate a business's health and robustness. Nalanda relies on past operating and financial performance and corroborating information from various sources to identify these honest signals.


A key principle that sets Nalanda apart is their patience and commitment to long-term investing. Prasad and his team understand the power of compounding and embrace the idea of owning outstanding businesses forever. They avoid selling exceptional businesses even during short-term fluctuations and stay invested to benefit from long-term value creation.


Prasad concludes with a simple and repeatable investment process inspired by honeybees' decision-making approach. The process involves eliminating significant risks, investing in high-quality businesses at fair prices, and holding these businesses forever. Nalanda prioritizes executing their investment process consistently, recognizing that while it does not guarantee success every time, it has proven effective over the long run.


In "What I Learned About Investing from Darwin," Pulak Prasad intertwines principles from evolutionary theory with investment strategies to offer a fresh perspective on successful investing. By drawing lessons from nature and applying them to the financial world, Prasad demonstrates how aligning investment principles with the inherent principles of life can lead to sound investment decisions and long-term wealth creation.


A totally recommended book for those interested in quality and longterm investing as well as the life lessons you can extract from the discipline. 


August 2023

Megacycles, Investment, and Classic Sports Cars: Finding Fortune in the Long Run or playing roulette?



I started liking investing, and now, I love it. As I delved into podcast, interviews or books on investing, such as those listed on https://www.carlescarrera.com/books, and absorbed wisdom from seasoned investors, I discovered that it taught me more about life than I ever imagined. All quality and value investors seem to have figured out how to live on their own terms. 


Another passion of mine is classic sports cars, particularly Porsches. All in all, with my Carrera surname, what else? I own a very modest 20 year old 911 Carrera 996 Generation 4S, a prized possession that has been part of my life for almost 3 years. It's hard not to be tempted by the idea of parting ways with it, especially when life gets busy, and I struggle to find time to enjoy it. But then, an intriguing realization struck me like a bolt of lightning—the car's value has been appreciating over time, almost making the ownership cost negligible as its value rose more than what I spend on maintenance, taxes or insurance. And with that, the decision to keep it was cemented. Kind of.


Now, what's fascinating is that my Porsche is not just a hobby or a material possession; it's an integral part of my investment portfolio. Just like my investments, I want to see it grow in value over the long run.


Speaking of investments, the world of finance can be incredibly complex. Yet, amidst the sea of information and strategies, I've come to realize that following a systematic, analytical, and disciplined approach, even dedicating your full life to analyze investments might only provide a slight advantage over basic principles. Basis principles include investing only in quality, don’t overpay and hold for for the long term. Beyond the core of investing there are other principles. One such principle that has caught my attention is the concept of megacycles. Check graphic here.


Megacycles refer to periodic trends in the market, charting the years of panic and changing trends (beginning of bearish trends), the best times to sell assets at high prices (B point), and the lowest prices to buy assets (beginning of a bull market, C point). The periodicity spans 16/18/20 years (top), 8/9/10 years (mid), and 3-6 / 2-5 / 4-7 years (below).


Back-testing this concept with historical events like the 2000 dotcom Bubble, the 2019-2020 crisis, the 1965 Cuban missile crisis, and the 1981 economic crisis reveals intriguing correlations.


Following this theory, it occurred to me that now might be a propitious moment to consider selling my beloved Porsche in 2023—an opportune C point when the lowest prices occur and the time to buy assets begins and lack of time to properly enjoy such a car as it should be enjoyed. By converting the proceeds into investments, I can embark on a journey to grow my wealth until 2026. During this time, I hope to generate enough capital to not only purchase a superior classic Porsche (I have my eye on the 997 generation, the latest classic in the Porsche family, possibly a GT3 version), but also to prepare for the next C moment in 2032.


However, as much as I believe in the power of megacycles, I also remain humble about the intricacies of the financial world. This strategy might work out splendidly, or it might be a stroke of fortune. After all, I firmly believe that forecasting is a perilous endeavor, and no one can predict the future with certainty. 


And I would not enjoy owning a classic Porsche. A Carrera. 


What would you do?


In conclusion, my passion for investing and classic sports cars has brought me on an incredible journey of learning and growth. While I take inspiration from investment principles like megacycles, I also acknowledge that success in both realms requires patience, diligence, and a willingness to embrace uncertainty. Whether I end up thriving as an investor or merely enjoying my time with classic cars, I cherish the thrill of the adventure and the lessons it imparts.


July 2023

The Power of Simplicity: Unearthing the Fundamentals of Health, Longevity, and Investing




How is achieving financial independence similar to attaining health and longevity? More than you might think. Let's dive into the world where finance meets health.


Parallels Between Health & Investing


Health, longevity, and investing may seem like separate universes, often seen as complex and intimidating fields reserved for experts. However, beneath this surface complexity, these areas are governed by surprisingly straightforward principles.


The Simplicity of Health and Longevity


Health and longevity, while deeply scientific, have fundamental cornerstones that anyone can understand and follow:


1. Quality Sleep: Ensuring you get enough quality sleep is one of the simplest yet most effective steps to good health and longevity. 

2. Regular Exercise: Keeping active daily, irrespective of the intensity or type of activity, directly contributes to a healthier, longer life.

3. Balanced Diet: Nutrition can't be overlooked. Eating a balanced diet nourishes the body and supports all its functions.

4. Stress Management: Chronic stress takes a toll on our well-being. Therefore, regular stress management practices are a must for maintaining health.


These simple yet powerful practices are the bedrock of health and longevity, regardless of the changing trends and advanced scientific studies.


The Fundamentals of Investing


Similarly, value investing and achieving financial independence, despite the myriad of financial theories and models, boil down to a few key principles:


1. Save and Invest: The cornerstone of wealth building lies in saving (spending less than you earn) a portion of your earnings and investing it wisely (making it work for you).

2. Quality Selection: Just as nutrition matters for health, selecting high-quality investments is vital for financial health. 

3. Fair Valuation: An investment's worth isn't just its potential; it's also about ensuring you're not overpaying for it. It's like having a margin of safety.

4. Patience and Inaction: Often the hardest part - once your investments are made, allowing them to grow over time often requires doing nothing. The best investors are the most passive. Give me the name of a rich trader, for each one, I'll give you the name of 100 rich "passive" investor. 


These investing fundamentals remain the same, regardless of market swings or changing economic climates.


The Essence of Mastery: Simple Fundamentals


The crux here is that the keys to both health and financial independence aren't hidden in complexities, but lie in the mastery of basic principles. These principles, or fundamentals, aren't merely starting points but are frameworks that guide us throughout our journey.


Whether it's maintaining a healthy lifestyle, striving for longevity, or pursuing financial independence through investing, we need to look beyond the complexity and focus on understanding and applying these fundamentals. It's not about mastering all the details, but about consistently applying the simple rules and frameworks.


In conclusion, the path to health, longevity, and financial independence is less about complexity and more about understanding and practicing the fundamentals. Both fields, though appearing complex, offer a simplicity that anyone can grasp and apply. After all, it's the simple things, consistently done, that often yield the most profound results. So, embrace these fundamentals and start your journey towards health and wealth.


When the noise gets too much, always remember to go back to basics. The path to health, longevity, and financial independence may seem intricate, but the power of simplicity is undeniable.


July 2023

A Transparent Look into My 2nd Quarter 2023 Stock Portfolio Performance 


As part of my ongoing commitment to transparency and learning, I'm sharing my 2nd Quarter 2023 personal stock portfolio update. My portfolio is diverse, representing various sectors, and includes the following companies: $TSLA, $SHOP, $GOOGL, $META, $NKE, $ASML.AS, $MC.PA, $MELI, $ABNB, $SEDG, $UPS, $BAM, $MTLS, $CRWD, $SQ, $TINY, $COIN, $PAH3, $U, and $SE.

Since I began tracking in May 2019, my portfolio has garnered a net return of 53%, amounting to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.91%. In the second quarter of 2023 alone, the portfolio has grown by a net of 15.44%, making a Year-to-Date (YTD) growth of 59.41%.

The portfolio's heaviest weights are in Tesla ($TSLA, 25.6% of portfolio), Shopify ($SHOP, 17.4%), Alphabet ($GOOGL, 13.6%), Meta ($META, 7.3%), and Nike ($NKE, 4.9%).

Interestingly, despite my intent to adopt a more passive investment strategy, the second quarter ended up being quite an active period. However, it's essential to remember that my approach relies on following a consistent strategy, not market whims. By sticking to a rigorous screening process and acting decisively when the situation fits my checklist, I can maintain a disciplined approach.

During this quarter, I made some significant moves. I doubled my position in Airbnb ($ABNB) and ASML Holding ($ASML.AS). I also increased my position in LVMH ($MC.PA) by 50%. Additionally, I initiated positions in CrowdStrike Holdings ($CRWD) and Tiny Capital ($TINY). Despite the fluctuating market conditions, I made no sales this quarter, an indication of my optimism for the future.

There have been several stand-out performers and some disappointments in the quarter. The winners were Meta ($META, +35.4%), Shopify ($SHOP, +34.8%), and Unity Software ($U, +33.9%). Conversely, the stocks that didn't fare as well were Sea Ltd ($SE, -32.9%), SolarEdge Technologies ($SEDG, -11.5%), and MercadoLibre ($MELI, -10.1%).

Over the course of my tracking period, the biggest winners have been Tesla ($TSLA, +1644%, CAGR 41%), Shopify ($SHOP, +524%, CAGR 32%), and SolarEdge Technologies ($SEDG, +117%, CAGR 26%).

Looking towards the future, I have my eyes set on initiating positions in $BN, $PSNY, $BX, $LILM, $P911.DE, and $ORGN, and am considering increasing my stake in $NKE, $SQ, $COIN, $MELI, and $UPS. On the flip side, I might consider selling $SE, $PAH3.DE, and $MTLS, based on market dynamics and my ongoing evaluation.

Stay tuned for more updates on my portfolio and investment strategy. Remember, investing is a journey, not a destination. Happy investing!


July 2023