Intro:

Welcome! I've been investing since I was young and, like any investor, I've made my fair share of mistakes. But each misstep has been a stepping stone to understanding the market better. I'm learning and growing continuously in this journey.

This space is dedicated to sharing my investment portfolio and the lessons I've picked up along the way. Here, you'll get a glimpse into my investment strategies, decision-making process, and my approach to navigating the ever-changing market. Let's learn and grow together in the world of investing.

I'm curating my very own Investing list on twitter X 

Two main strategies and portfolios:

My investments are mainly divided between my own investments (more active, and more risky) and the family ones (less active, less risky):

Investment allocation is (more or less) as follows:

My own portfolio:

Debt: 0%

Cash: ≅0%

Indexed Funds: ≅40%

Pension Funds: ≅20%

Private Equity: ≅0%

Individual Stocks: ≅25%

Crypto: ≅10%

Others: ≅5%

Family portfolio:

Debt: 0%

Cash: ≅0%

Indexed Funds: ≅60%

Mutual Funds: ≅30%

Private Equity: 0%

Individual Stocks: ≅5%

Crypto: 0%

Index Funds:

With all my experience, my biggest allocation is Index Funds, where I don't do anything. I just define my risk profile and schedule weekly (or monthly) bank transfers that are automatically invested for me. The best ones in Spain are Indexa Capital. I've been investing with them since the beginning. If you join them using this link, we both benefit from 15.000 € without fees.

Individual stocks:

Where I have more fun is managing my stocks porfolio. I find myself shifting from growth to value (even to dividends), should be I'm aging ;-) and now I'm less and less active and only buy when I want to hold forever. I have my portfolio at Self Bank and moving it slowly to MyInvestor which seems more modern, and with lower fees. They even have a cash account giving a 2,5% interest up to 75K. If you join them using the code: P4OSV we'll both get 20€

I had to open an account at Interactive Brokers, because they allow me to buy Canadian stocks and I wanted to invest in $TINY.V and more recently in a stock in the Austrian stock market $PKTM.VI

Personal Stock Portfolio - 4th Quarter 2024 Update

Investing is like a dance—you think you’re leading, but every so often, the market reminds you that it’s the one in charge. The 4th quarter of 2024 was no exception. While my portfolio delivered a solid 15.86% net return this quarter (up 33.78% YTD), it didn’t quite match my earlier hopes for a strong year-end surge. But as the saying goes, “The market doesn’t care about your feelings.”

Let’s dive into the performance highlights, changes, and what I’m keeping my eyes on as we enter 2025.

Portfolio Overview

Since May 19th, when I started tracking my portfolio seriously, I’ve achieved a 19.60% CAGR with an average holding period of 2.63 years. 

Quarter Performance

• Q4 2024 Return: 15.86%

• YTD 2024: 33.78%

Biggest Positions

Here’s where my conviction lies:

1. $TSLA – 23.4%

2. $SHOP – 12.5%

3. $GOOGL – 11.7%

4. $META – 8.0%

5. Cash – 5.6%

Winners and Losers

The market doesn’t move in a straight line, and this quarter proved that with some big wins and losses.

Biggest Winners

1. $TSLA (+55.8%) – A strong rebound made it the standout performer of the quarter.

2. $COIN (+39.4%) – "The Manager of Crypto" for institutions continues to surprise skeptics and reward patient investors.

3. $SHOP (+32.9%) – E-commerce resilience and new initiatives pushed this higher.

Biggest Losers

1. $MELI (-17.1%) – Latin America’s e-commerce giant had a rough quarter, but I’m not giving up on the long-term story.

2. $ORGN (-16.9%) – A curious case of a big quarterly win paired with some volatility.

3. $ASML (-15.2%) – A temporary dip in the chip cycle doesn’t shake my belief in their monopoly-like moat.

Portfolio Actions

This quarter, I made a few strategic moves to keep the portfolio aligned with my vision:

• New position: Started a stake in $PKTM.VI at a valuation of ~€500M.

• Reduced exposure: Trimmed $SHOP (-13%) and $TSLA (-7%) to rebalance risk.

• Exited completely: Sold out of $SQ and $TINY.V as I felt my thesis for both had run its course.

Lessons Learned and What's Next

If I’ve learned one thing this year, it’s this: don’t try to predict the market. In October, I was confident we’d end the year on an explosive rally. Reality? It was strong but not quite what I imagined. This humbling experience reminded me that my job isn’t to predict—it’s to prepare.

Preparation means sticking to my framework:

1. Prioritizing businesses I’d feel confident owning for 5+ years.

2. Letting the numbers (and valuations) do the talking.

3. Trusting the power of compounding and staying patient.

Looking ahead to 2025, I’m watching several names closely:

• Potential Additions: I may increase positions in $ASML, $NKE, $ABNB, $MC.PA, or $UPS if the right opportunities arise.

• New Positions: I’m intrigued by $SIRI and $P911. Both could add unique flavors to the portfolio.

It’s easy to get distracted by market noise or short-term dips, but as I remind myself every quarter: “Focus on the long term, and let the compounding magic do its thing.”

January 2025

The Hidden Cost of High Fund Fees: Impact on Wealth and the Economy


Some days ago, I encountered a situation that reminded me how critical it is to stay vigilant with investments. My 88-year-old mother, like many people her age, doesn’t have substantial savings. But every euro she saved makes a meaningful difference.


She needed a low-risk option to save her savings from inflation and currency depreciation as much as possible without incurring in any risk, so I turned to money market funds, which seemed like the perfect fit. The bank confidently recommended a fund:


BBVA Bonos Internacional Flexible FI (ISIN: ES0179396009). It sounded fine at first, but as I dug deeper, I realized the fees were uncomfortably high. After some quick research, I found an alternative: AXA Tresor Court Terme C (ISIN: FR0000447823), a similar fund but with significantly lower fees.


Both funds aim to deliver the same annual gross return of 2%-3%, but the fees drastically changed the net results. Curious to see the long-term impact, I ran the numbers for a €10,000 investment over different time horizons. Here’s what I discovered:


After 5 years the "small" difference in fees amounts to almost 6% less money

After 10 years the difference increases to more than 10%

After 20 years is almost 20%!!!


The difference is staggering. Over 20 years, nearly 20% of the investment’s potential growth is eaten away by fees. This isn’t just about my mother’s savings—it’s a cautionary tale for anyone investing in funds without scrutinizing their costs. Let’s dive into why fees matter so much and their broader impact on personal wealth and the economy.


How High Fees Quietly Erase Wealth

At first glance, fees like 1% or 2% may seem trivial. After all, how bad can a couple of percentage points be? The truth is, small percentages compound over time, and their cumulative impact can destroy wealth. Let’s unpack why.


A Leaky Bucket Effect

Think of investing as filling a bucket. The return you earn is like water being poured in. But with high fees, there’s a leak at the bottom of the bucket. No matter how much return flows in, a significant portion leaks out every year. The longer you keep investing in high-fee products, the more water (or wealth) you lose.


In the case of the bank recommended fund, the leak grows larger over time. Over 10 years, the difference compared to the fund I searched for grows to €1,209, and by 20 years, it’s nearly €2,700. That’s money that could’ve been reinvested, compounded further, or used for financial goals.


The Economic Ripples of High Fees

The problem of high fees doesn’t stop at personal portfolios. It extends to the broader economy in ways that many people overlook. Here’s how:


1. Wealth Erosion Means Less Spending

When high fees eat into returns, investors have less disposable income for spending or reinvesting. This creates a ripple effect: less demand for goods and services, slower consumption, and reduced economic activity overall.

2. Unequal Wealth Distribution

Large financial institutions benefit disproportionately from high fees, while small investors bear the brunt. This dynamic worsens inequality. Wealthier investors often have access to lower-cost options, while everyday people pay more—deepening the divide between the financial “haves” and “have-nots.”

3. Stunted Global Growth

High fees reduce aggregate savings, leaving less capital available for critical investments in infrastructure, innovation, and productivity. Over time, this weakens the ability of economies to grow and adapt to new challenges.

4. Trust in Financial Institutions Declines

When banks push high-fee products while cheaper options exist, it’s hard not to feel exploited. This erodes trust in financial systems and discourages broader participation in wealth-building tools like mutual funds, pensions, and other long-term investments.


What We Can Do: Solutions for Smarter Investing

If this story resonates with you, here’s the good news: we can take steps to protect our wealth and create a fairer financial system. Whether you’re managing your own savings or helping a loved one like I did, these strategies can make a world of difference:


1. Start With Education

Financial literacy is the ultimate superpower. Take the time to understand how fees work and why they matter. Resources like Morningstar’s guide on fund fees or investment books like The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by Jack Bogle are great starting points.

2. Seek Low-Cost Alternatives

Actively managed funds often come with higher fees, while passive options like index funds or ETFs offer similar returns for a fraction of the cost. For instance, Vanguard and Amundi are leaders in providing low-fee investment options.

3. Push for Transparency

Banks and fund managers should clearly disclose fees. Regulations that require transparent reporting on costs can help everyday investors make better choices. Advocating for these changes benefits everyone.

4. Embrace Fintech

Platforms like Robo-advisors (e.g., Betterment, Wealthfront or Indexa in Spain) are game-changers. They offer diversified portfolios and manage investments for low fees, leveraging technology to keep costs down.


Final Thoughts: Fees Aren’t Just Numbers—they’re Choices

This experience reminded me of an essential truth: you can’t control the market, but you can control what you pay. My mother may not have much in savings, but by choosing the right fund, we’ve already avoided losing hundreds—and potentially thousands—of euros in the years to come. Which I hope, are many.


This isn’t just about individual decisions; it’s about shifting how we think about investing. High fees quietly erode wealth, deepen inequality, and slow economic growth. But by educating ourselves, demanding better transparency, and embracing low-cost alternatives, we can build a more equitable financial future.


The next time you consider an investment, don’t just ask, “What’s the return?” Make sure you ask, “What are the fees?” It could be the most important question you ask about your money.


November 2024

Financial Escape Velocity (FEV) Vs. Financial Independence (FI). Understanding the nuances

In the world of personal finance, there are two milestones people constantly chase: Financial Escape Velocity (FEV) and Financial Independence (FI). They might sound similar, and they’re often confused, but they’re actually quite different—and understanding this distinction can change how you approach financial freedom.

Let’s break down each concept, see why Financial Escape Velocity is exciting but a bit shaky, and explore why Financial Independence might be the more resilient path to a life unbound by financial stress.

Financial Escape Velocity: When Your Investments Take Over

Imagine this: you’ve built up an investment portfolio that generates enough returns to cover your annual living expenses. No need for a paycheck, no side hustle—just your investments taking care of everything. That’s what Financial Escape Velocity is all about: your portfolio covers your lifestyle costs for a year, on its own. When you hit FEV, it feels like your finances have reached a thrilling momentum, breaking free from the need for active income. I reached FEV for the first time during October 2024. 

But here’s the catch: FEV can be fragile. It’s like riding a wave—great when it’s moving strong, but dependent on the right conditions. FEV is tied to steady market returns, meaning it’s vulnerable to the ups and downs of the economy. If there’s a market dip, if dividends dry up, or if you’re hit with unexpected costs, suddenly your returns might not cover your needs. In other words, FEV is freedom with a caveat: one downturn, and you might be right back to relying on active income.

Financial Independence: A Resilient Foundation

On the other hand, Financial Independence is more like building a sturdy, reliable ship that can weather any storm. When you reach FI, you’ve accumulated enough wealth to cover your expenses, sustainably, even through lean market years. FI often follows the “4% rule,” meaning you have a large enough portfolio that allows you to withdraw around 4% of your investments each year without running out of funds.

The beauty of FI is that it isn’t as sensitive to market volatility. Once you have enough saved up (typically about 25 times your annual expenses), you can live off your portfolio, regardless of the market’s mood. Reaching FI means you’re not just riding a wave of freedom; you’ve built a reliable foundation for it.

Why is this resilience so important? Because life happens—markets fluctuate, and unexpected expenses crop up. FI is designed with these twists in mind, meaning you’re not forced to adjust your lifestyle or scramble to bring in income when the market dips. With FI, you have a genuine safety net that FEV doesn’t quite offer.

So, What’s the Difference?

Financial Escape Velocity, at its core, is about getting your investments to cover your lifestyle for today, making it thrilling but fragile. It depends on the steady performance of your portfolio. Financial Independence, however, is the real long-term freedom, built on a solid investment base. With FI, you have enough wealth to support your lifestyle indefinitely, making work completely optional. FI’s foundation can handle market fluctuations and keep supporting you even in the bad years.

In other words, FEV gives you a taste of financial freedom—you’re covering your costs, but you’re sensitive to market conditions. FI, though, is true financial freedom: you’ve built a nest egg large enough to sustain you, come what may.

Which Comes First?

For many, FEV is the first big milestone. It’s achievable faster because it requires less than the robust portfolio needed for FI. FEV lets you experience what it’s like to live without relying on active income, often motivating people to keep building. FI, though, is the finish line—a place where freedom from work or other income sources is not only possible but stable.

Why Aim for Both?

Reaching FEV is a powerful motivator. It’s your proof that you’re on the right track, that your investments can start carrying their weight. But FI is where the real security lies. With FEV, you’re riding a wave; with FI, you’re standing on solid ground.

By aiming for both, you create a financial journey that combines the flexibility of FEV with the resilience of FI. FEV might allow you to take time off work or start a passion project; FI gives you the true freedom to live on your terms, without a fallback plan or fear of financial instability.

Charting Your Path to Financial Freedom

In the end, whether you’re aiming for Financial Escape Velocity, Financial Independence, or both, this journey is yours to define. It’s about creating the life you want—and having the financial stability to support it. By understanding FEV and FI, you’re setting yourself up for a life where money serves you, rather than controls you.

So, are you aiming first for the thrill of FEV, or the stability of FI? Either way, the path toward true financial freedom is yours to craft.


November 2024

Reaching Financial Escape Velocity: A Milestone and a Reminder

In October 2024, I reached a goal I’ve been working toward for years: Financial Escape Velocity. For the first time, my income from investing over the past 12 months exceeded my expenses for the same period. If that sounds like a game-changer, in many ways, it is. It’s a major milestone for anyone on the path to financial independence. Yet the funny thing? My life doesn’t feel much different.


It’s surreal, hitting a number you’ve been striving for, only to find that the day after doesn’t feel like a new chapter so much as… more of the same. In fact it’s not even a day as I check finances only once a month. 


Don’t get me wrong—I do feel safer. There’s a sense of having achieved a little more freedom, a little more flexibility. But life didn’t transform overnight. The dishes still pile up, the daily challenges and frustrations still pop up, and I still feel the need to keep pushing forward.


The Big Takeaway? Don’t Delay Living Until You “Make It”

This milestone has reminded me that true happiness or fulfillment doesn’t come from hitting a financial target. Sure, reaching Financial Escape Velocity can give you a stronger foundation, a deeper sense of security. But waiting for that moment to finally start “living” would be a mistake.


If we spend our lives postponing joy until we reach some idealized goalpost, we risk missing the whole point of the journey. Real contentment doesn’t live in the future; it’s here, now, in the small, everyday choices we make. Reaching this milestone has only reinforced for me that happiness is fleeting—it comes and goes, ebbing and flowing with life’s ups and downs. Instead of chasing happiness, I’ve learned to stay focused on what I can control: improving myself, being present, and nurturing relationships with those around me.


Discipline > Motivation

When people talk about financial freedom, the focus is often on motivation. But I’ve realized that motivation is only the spark—it’s discipline that fuels the journey. Discipline is the engine that keeps things moving, even when motivation feels a million miles away. Financial Escape Velocity didn’t come from a single burst of energy; it came from years of sticking to small, daily habits and goals. Discipline is what keeps me grounded as I look ahead, knowing that markets can shift and the comfort of today might be temporary.


The milestone is significant, but it’s not the end of the story. It’s just one chapter in a life that’s still being written. I’ll keep embracing the struggles, staying focused on the journey, and reminding myself that it’s not about reaching “the end” but about making each day meaningful along the way.


November 2024

Personal Stock Portfolio - 3rd Quarter 2024 Update

It’s that time again. Another quarter down, another set of numbers to reflect on. The market keeps reminding me—no matter how much data or expert predictions you have, it moves to its own rhythm. And as always, it paid to stay patient, keep an open mind, and resist the urge to act on every piece of news. September, often feared for its turbulence, surprised us by ending in the green. Go figure. 

I’ve been tracking my portfolio since May 2019, and over that time, I’ve achieved a 16.21% CAGR. It’s been a rewarding journey, but one that requires a lot of patience. The average holding period for my stocks is now 2.60 years, which is a reminder to myself that good things take time—especially in investing.

The Numbers: How Did the Portfolio Perform?

For the third quarter of 2024, my portfolio posted a solid 10.41% net return, bringing my YTD to +14.05%. Now, it’s easy to celebrate the numbers, but I’ve learned (sometimes the hard way) that these figures only tell part of the story. Markets fluctuate, gains come and go, and what really matters is sticking to the plan over the long haul.

I know people like to scan posts for data, so here’s a snapshot of my biggest positions:

1. $TSLA – 18.8%

2. $SHOP – 12.5%

3. $GOOGL – 11.8%

4. $META – 8.9%

5. $MELI – 6.4%

These aren’t just tickers to me. They’re pieces of businesses that I believe will continue to grow, with strong fundamentals and solid management. It’s easy to get lost in short-term numbers, but the magic happens when you zoom out and focus on the years ahead.

Moving Cash Into the Market

One of the major moves this quarter was reducing my cash reserves. At the start of the quarter, I had around 8% sitting in cash. But when opportunities presented themselves, I deployed the bulk of it. Now, only 1.6% of my portfolio is in cash, which feels like the right balance for the moment. Cash is a valuable tool for seizing opportunities, but holding too much of it can be a silent drag on returns.

#### Actions I Took This Quarter

I tend to take it slow with portfolio changes, but this quarter, I saw a few places where I could add to existing positions. Here’s what I did:

- Started a new position in $DE: Deere & Co. fits well with my long-term vision. It’s a company I trust, with a strong moat and solid financials.

- Increased my positions in $ASML (by 50%), $ABNB (by 54%), and $MC.PA (LVMH by 60%): These were calculated moves. All three companies have growth potential, I believe they are still priced attractively and I plan to hold them forever. 

Winners and Losers: The Tale of Two Stocks

Every portfolio has its stars and its laggards. Here’s how mine shook out this quarter:

Winners:

   - $ORGN: +70.9%

   - $TSLA: +32.2%

   - $ADYEN: +31.4%

Losers:

   - $TINY.V: -27.3%

   - $CRWD: -26.8%

   - $COIN: -19.8%

Now, one thing I’ve learned (and Morgan Housel would agree) is that investing is a game where small actions can have disproportionate impacts. You might be right only half the time, but if you let your winners run, those few successes can drive most of your returns. This is why I’m never too fixated on quarterly performance—it’s the long-term trajectory that matters.

Long-Term Winners So Far

Speaking of long-term, here are the biggest winners in my portfolio since I started tracking it:

1. $TSLA: +1283% (CAGR 31%)

2. $SHOP: +571% (CAGR 27%)

3. $GOOGL: +138% (CAGR 12%)

These numbers are eye-popping, but they didn’t happen overnight. It’s the power of compounding over time. And that’s the key lesson: the magic of investing happens when you hold through the boring parts, the volatile parts, and yes, even the scary parts.

What’s Next?

Looking ahead, I’m keeping my eye on a few things:

- I'm considering selling my entire position in $SQ. It’s been on my mind for a while, and I’m waiting for the right moment.

- I might increase positions in $NKE, $UPS, $ADYEN, $BAM, or $BN if the valuations make sense. These companies are solid, and adding to my positions in them feels like the right move, especially with the momentum they’ve been building.

- I’m also thinking about starting new positions in $SIRI or $ENPH. These are on my watchlist, and I’m waiting for the right time to pull the trigger.

But here’s the thing: I’m in no rush. As the old saying goes, “Time in the market beats timing the market.” I’ll continue to assess opportunities as they come, but patience remains my strongest ally.

At the end of the day, investing is a long game. It’s easy to get caught up in the noise of quarterly reports, stock market chatter, and short-term gains or losses. But the real skill lies in having the temperament to hold steady, even when it feels like the ground is shifting under you.

We live in a world where everyone wants to get rich quickly, but in reality, the most sustainable wealth is built slowly. It's not about reacting to every swing in the market—it's about setting up your portfolio in a way that allows you to ride through the volatility and come out stronger on the other side.

As always, the lesson is clear: Stick to your plan, stay patient, and keep learning. This journey is a marathon, not a sprint. And for those of us who can master our emotions and stay focused on the long term, the rewards are well worth the wait.

That’s all for this quarter, folks. Until next time, keep investing smartly and keep your eyes on the horizon.


October 2024

My personal stock portfolio 2024 Q2 analysis

Here is the latest update on my personal stock portfolio for the 2nd quarter of 2024. Below are the current holdings: $TSLA, $GOOGL, $SHOP, $META, $cash, $MELI, $ASML.AS, $ABNB, $MC.PA, $CRWD, $BAM, $UPS, $ADYEN, $NKE, $COIN, $BN, $SQ, $TINY and $ORGN

Since I started tracking my portfolio in May 2019, I’ve achieved an 18.81% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The average holding period for my stocks is 2.55 years.

Quarter Returns

For the 2nd quarter of 2024, my portfolio posted a net return of 1.91%, bringing the year-to-date (YTD) return to 3.15%.

Biggest Positions

1. $TSLA - 17.8%

2. $GOOGL - 14.1%

3. $SHOP - 11.1%

4. $META - 8.5%

5. cash - 8.0%

Commentary

This quarter was relatively passive for me in terms of trading actions, but I remained very vigilant, ready to start new positions if the right opportunities arose.

I noticed a lot of fintweet people bragging about hitting all-time highs, but that’s not my focus. I’m keeping my head down and sticking to the plan. It’s important to stay disciplined and not try to predict the market, especially when it seems overbought.

Actions During the Quarter

Sold my position in $BX: I achieved a 36% gain and decided to reduce the number of stocks I follow closely. I wasn’t particularly interested in keeping up with this company anymore.

Doubled my position in $BAM: This was a strategic move based on my long-term confidence in the company.

Rebought half the $META stock I sold in Q1: The market conditions and my analysis led me to believe it was a good time to reinvest at a huge discount. 

Winners/Losers of the Quarter

Winners:

1. $ORGN - +76.7%

2. $GOOGL - +20.7%

3. $TSLA - +12.6%

Losers:

1. $ADYEN - -29.5%

2. $TINY.V - -23.8%

3. $NKE - -19.8%

Biggest Winners So Far

1. $TSLA - +1123% (CAGR 31%)

2. $SHOP - +453% (CAGR 25%)

3. $COIN - +169% (CAGR 43%)

Looking Ahead to Next Quarters

I’m closely watching the following moves for the upcoming quarters:

Considering selling my entire position in $SQ: Monitoring closely to decide the right timing. Potentially increasing positions in: $ASML, $NKE, $UPS, $MC.PA, $ABNB, and $BN. Maybe starting new positions in: $LSXMK or $PSNY.

That’s all for this quarter’s update. Remember, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Stick to your plan, stay disciplined, and keep learning.


July 2024 (from Kyoto)

Investing is simple (not easy). You "only" need to know (and apply) what Charlie told in this speech from 1994

The idea for this blog post came to me while reading Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger, edited by Peter D. Kaufman and beautifully published by Stripe Press. Specifically, I was inspired by the chapter titled “A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business” This speech given at USC Business School in 1994 encapsulates the essence of investing. It’s simple, but simplicity doesn’t equate to ease. Mastering and applying the principles in this speech is all you need to achieve financial success, and I can guarantee (*) that it will make you rich.

(*) I can also guarantee 90% of you won't read it in full. 90% of the remaining won't understand what they read. 99% of the remaining won't practice it on daily basis for decades. Which means only 1 in 10000 of the readers will become rich. 

A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom

Charlie Munger, the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s long-time partner, delivered a speech that distills the core principles of investing. Here are the key takeaways from that chapter:

1. Mental Models

Munger emphasizes the importance of having a broad latticework of mental models. These models are frameworks for understanding the world. By drawing knowledge from various disciplines like psychology, mathematics, engineering, biology, and economics, you can make better investment decisions. Munger calls this a "multi-disciplinary approach."

Key Mental Models to Consider:

- Circle of Competence: Stick to what you know and understand deeply.

- Margin of Safety: Always allow room for error in your investments.

- Mr. Market: View the market as a manic-depressive person offering buy/sell prices that often don’t reflect true value.

2. The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

Understanding human psychology is crucial in investing. Munger outlines several biases and tendencies that can lead to poor decisions:

- Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that confirms pre-existing beliefs.

- Overconfidence: Overestimating your knowledge and abilities.

- Recency Bias: Giving undue weight to recent events.

By being aware of these biases, investors can avoid common pitfalls.

3. Compounding and Patience

Munger underscores the power of compounding and the importance of long-term thinking. Compounding, the process where earnings generate more earnings, is a fundamental principle of wealth creation.

Example:


Turning $1,000 into $267,865 in 40 years with a 15% annual return illustrates the spectacular power of compounding.


4. Inversion: Avoiding Stupidity


Instead of focusing solely on what to do, Munger advises thinking about what not to do. This principle of inversion helps in identifying and avoiding potential mistakes.

- Avoid Debt: High levels of debt can amplify losses.

- Avoid Short-term Trading: Frequent trading incurs costs and often leads to poorer performance.

- Avoid Overpaying: No matter how good a company is, overpaying for its stock can lead to disappointing returns.

5. Understanding Risk

Risk is not just about volatility; it’s about the likelihood of permanent loss of capital. Munger advises assessing the true risk of an investment and not just its price movements.

Key Points on Risk:

- Intrinsic Value: The true worth of a business based on its fundamentals.

- Economic Moat: The competitive advantage that protects a company from competitors.

- Management Quality: Assessing the competence and integrity of a company's management.


Charlie Munger’s wisdom is timeless and invaluable for anyone looking to succeed in investing. His emphasis on mental models, understanding human psychology, the power of compounding, inversion, and risk assessment provides a comprehensive framework for making sound investment decisions. By incorporating these principles, you can navigate the complexities of investing with greater confidence and achieve long-term financial success. 

Remember, investing is simple but not easy. It requires discipline, patience, and continuous learning. But by adhering to Munger’s elementary, worldly wisdom, you can indeed become rich.


June 2024

My personal stock portfolio 2024 Q1 analysis

As we close the first quarter of 2024, it's time to reflect on the performance (and my own). 

Portfolio Dynamics: A Mixed Bag

My investment canvas portrays a blend of giants, dividend kings and some asymmetric bets. In order: $TSLA, $SHOP, $GOOGL, $cash, $META, $MELI, $ABNB, $MC.PA, $ASML.AS, $ADYEN, $NKE, $UPS, $COIN, $CRWD, $BAM, $BN, $SQ, $BX, $TINY, $ORGN.

Tracking properly since May 2019, my portfolio has sustained a commendable 20.28% CAGR, with an average holding period stretching to 2.09 years. 

The Quarter at a Glance

My personal (I have family and son portfolios too) portfolio witnessed a modest 2.23% net gain, marking a year-to-date increase of ... drums ... +2.23% ... 🤣. Despite the broader indices basking in green, my portfolio's growth was curtailed primarily by the underperformance of my biggest position, $TSLA.

The unveiling of my cash position, now meticulously tracked, offers a fresh perspective and flexibility in capital allocation.

Maneuvers and Reflections

This quarter, I honed in on optimization rather than expansion:

- Trimming the Excess: I reduced my stake in $GOOGL by 15%, a strategic move to recalibrate its dominance in my portfolio and to reflect my loss in confidence in the stock. I'm sure it will keep being a leader for years to come, but it's big and slow at the moment. Similarly, $META saw a reduction of one-third, reflecting a reassessment of its value proposition amidst a personal crises of my businesses dealing with Facebook Ads and their poor management. 

- Bolstering Convictions: I significantly increased my holdings in $ABNB (by 40%), $MC.PA (by 65%), and $MELI (by 50%), reaffirming my belief in their long-term prospects.

Triumphs and Tribulations

The quarter's champions were $COIN (+52.4%), $META (+38.8%), and $ADYEN (+34.4%), each delivering stellar performances that underscored the merit of strategic conviction. On the flip side, $ORGN (-39.0%), $TSLA (-29.3%), and $NKE (-13.4%) bore the brunt of market volatility and sector-specific headwinds.

Evergreen Victories

The long-term stars of my portfolio, $TSLA (+829%), $SHOP (+546%), and $COIN (+214%), continue to exemplify the power of visionary investing and the compounding effect of time.

Forward Gaze

As we navigate through 2024, I remain vigilant, ready to prune $SQ and possibly $BX while eyeing opportunities to augment my stakes in $ASML, $NKE, $UPS, $BAM, or $BN. The potential initiation of positions in $P911.DE or $PSNY hints at an evolving strategy keen on embracing new frontiers.


April 2024

Essentialism in Investing: A Personal Journey to Financial Freedom


Have you ever felt overwhelmed by the sheer volume of investment advice out there? It's like standing in the middle of a bustling market, with everyone shouting their offers and promises at you, recommendations, predictions, 10Q’s, 10K’s, investor presentations, macro, news … But what if I told you that the secret to successful investing doesn't lie in doing more, but in doing less? 


It’s like surfing - it's not about catching every wave but choosing the right ones. This concept, inspired by Greg McKeown's Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less, transformed not just my approach to investing but my entire lifestyle.


The Essence of Essentialism in Investing


The core idea of Essentialism, as I discovered, is breathtakingly simple yet profound: "Less but better." It's about identifying the few things that matter the most and dedicating your focus and resources to them. In the context of investing, this means prioritizing investments that align with your long-term goals and values, rather than chasing every new trend or opportunity that comes your way.


The Essentialist Investor's Path: Explore, Eliminate, Execute


1. Explore and Evaluate: Just as a seasoned surfer studies the waves before making a move, an essentialist investor takes the time to explore and evaluate the vast ocean of investment opportunities. This involves creating space to think, listen, and discern the trivial many from the vital few.


2. Eliminate: Once you've identified your "waves" – those investments that promise the greatest alignment with your goals – the next step is to eliminate everything else. This is not always easy. It requires the courage to say no to potentially good opportunities to focus on the truly great ones.


3. Execute: With your focus narrowed, executing your investment strategy becomes almost effortless. You're not constantly second-guessing or jumping from one asset to another. Instead, you're steadily building towards your financial goals with discipline and clarity.


A Personal Story of Essentialism in Action


My journey towards embracing essentialism in investing began with a simple realization: I was spreading myself too thin, trying to catch every wave. Reflecting on my surfing experiences, I remembered how waiting for the right wave always led to the most exhilarating rides. Applying this to investing, I started to selectively focus on a few key areas – ones that I understood and believed in. This wasn't just about minimizing effort; it was about maximizing impact and satisfaction.


The Transformative Power of Saying "No"


One of the most empowering aspects of essentialism is mastering the art of saying "no." Early in my investing journey, I found myself saying yes to various opportunities, swayed by the fear of missing out. But as I embraced essentialism, I learned the power of a graceful "no." This shift wasn't just liberating; it was strategically sound, protecting me from overcommitment and allowing me to channel my resources into investments that truly mattered.


Practical Steps Towards Essentialist Investing


1. Take Time to Reflect: Regularly set aside time to assess your investment portfolio. Are these investments serving your long-term goals? Or are they distractions?


2. Simplify Your Portfolio: Focus on investments that you understand deeply and believe in strongly. This might mean consolidating your holdings or choosing index funds for broader, less hands-on market exposure.


3. Create a Routine: Develop a routine for reviewing and managing your investments. This could involve quarterly check-ins, annual rebalancing, or setting up automated contributions to your chosen funds.


4. Embrace the Power of Small Wins: Celebrate the milestones along your investing journey. Each step forward, no matter how small, is progress towards your financial independence.


5. Focus on What's Important Now: Keep your investment strategy aligned with your current life stage and financial goals. What's right for you now might be different five years down the line.


In Conclusion


Applying the principles of essentialism to investing has been a game-changer for me. It's a strategy that champions quality over quantity, focus over fragmentation. As we navigate the complex world of investing, let's remember the wisdom of less but better. It's not about having a piece of every pie, but savoring the slices that matter most to us.


Remember, the journey to financial independence is not a race; it's a carefully curated path. By applying the lessons of essentialism, we can make each step on this path deliberate, meaningful, and, ultimately, more rewarding.


March 2024

2023 Q4 analysis


Hey there, fellow investors and enthusiasts! As we wrap up the final quarter of 2023, I can't help but feel a sense of exhilaration. After the rollercoaster that was 2022, this year has been a refreshing change, and the fourth quarter especially stands out. So, grab a cup of your favorite beverage, and let's dive into the details of my personal stock portfolio update.


Portfolio Overview: A Diverse Array of Winners


My portfolio is a mix of giants and rising stars: $TSLA, $SHOP, $GOOGL, $META, $NKE, $MELI, $UPS, $ASML.AS, $ABNB, $ADYEN, $MC.PA, $CRWD, $COIN, $BAM, $BN, $SQ, $BX, $TINY, $ORGN


Since I began tracking in May 2019, the portfolio has achieved a 20.48% CAGR. The average holding period for these stocks? A prudent 1.85 years.


Quarterly and Year-to-Date Performance: A Reason to Celebrate


This quarter, my portfolio soared with a 14.41% net gain, culminating in a year-to-date (YTD) increase of +67.31%. This performance underscores the importance of resilience, patience, and strategic thinking in investing.


The biggest positions in my portfolio are a testament to this approach:


1. $TSLA - 22.5%

2. $SHOP - 15.3%

3. $GOOGL - 14.7%

4. $META - 8.4%

5. $NKE - 4.4%


The Art of Waiting: Lessons Learned


This quarter reiterated a vital lesson: the power of being methodic. The key is to polish and stick to your method, resist temptations, and learn the art of patience. In investing, sometimes the best action is inaction.


Key Actions and Reflections


- Trimming $SHOP: I reduced my position by 21%. Despite its high price, my belief in Shopify remains strong.

- Exiting Positions: I sold off my entire holdings in $U, $PAH3.DE, and $SE. It was a tough call, but necessary.

- Observant Waiting: With a 4% cash position, I'm on the lookout for new opportunities.


Winners and Losers: The Ups and Downs


Winners of the quarter include:


1. $COIN - +131.65%

2. $SQ - +74.76%

3. $ADYEN - +65.31%


And the less fortunate ones:


1. $ORGN - -34.69%

2. $TINY - -33.63%

3. $ABNB - -0.78%


Biggest Victories So Far


- $TSLA: +1555% (CAGR 37%)

- $SHOP: +653% (CAGR 33%)

- $GOOGL: +113% (CAGR 11%)


Looking Ahead: Strategy for the Coming Quarters


As we move forward, I'm keeping a close eye on $SQ and $TSLA for potential trims. On the flip side, I'm considering beefing up my stakes in $ABNB, $MC.PA, $ASML, $BAM, $BN, and $NKE. New potential ventures like $P911.DE, $ENPH, or $PSNY are also on my radar.


In Conclusion


This quarter has been a vivid reminder that optimism in investing isn't just a mindset; it's a strategy backed by mathematics and psychology. Here's to embracing optimism and looking forward to what the future holds in the investing world!


Remember, investing is not just about the numbers; it's a journey of continuous learning, adapting, and growing. Stay tuned, stay invested, and let's navigate this exciting world together.



January 2024

My Way to FI: Decoding the True Essence of Financial Independence


Picture this: You're lounging on a sun-drenched beach, sipping a chilled caipirinha, without a care in the world. Sounds like the ultimate Financial Independence (FI) dream, right? But let’s hit the pause button on this idyllic TV ad scene. In reality, FI is far more than endless vacations and exotic cocktails. 


Financial Independence is about creating a life where your financial assets work for you, providing comfort and peace of mind which allows you to freely decide how you spend your time:

 

Join me as I debunk some common FI myths and share my personal journey towards true financial freedom.

Financial Independence isn't just a fancy term; it's a beacon of hope for many. Imagine a life where the income from your investments consistently surpasses your expenses. That's FI in a nutshell. It's not about striking gold in a single lucky investment; it's about the steady rhythm of smart choices and consistency.

When I started investing as a youngster, I made every mistake in the book. But guess what? Each mistake was a stepping stone. Without those errors, my learning journey, no matter how much I read about money and investing, wouldn't have been as rich.


FI isn't about earning a six-figure income. It's about smartly managing your finances, spending way less than you earn, and investing the rest. It's about making your money work for you, not the other way around. I've learned that a dollar saved and invested wisely is more valuable than a dollar earned and spent impulsively.


To me, Financial Independence means peace of mind. It's about having enough to live comfortably, not extravagantly. I recall explaining this to my son, who thought FI meant living like a millionaire. I clarified that it's about the freedom to enjoy life without financial stress – a concept that resonates with people of all ages.

For those starting their FI journey, here are some tips:


How do I measure FI?

There are several ways to measure FI, but they all hinge on one critical factor: knowing your expenses. More specifically, I recommend tracking your expenses over the trailing last 12 months. This approach helps smooth out variability and accounts for one-time expenses and unforeseen costs.


From this basis, a general rule is to multiply your trailing last 12 months' expenses by 25. This is essentially the same as following the 4% rule. This rule suggests that "if an individual can cover their annual expenses by withdrawing 4% of their portfolio savings (per year), the individual is assumed to have achieved financial independence."


Let's put this into perspective. Say your trailing last 12 months' expenses are $50,000. To reach Financial Independence, you'd need $1,250,000 "in the bank". While I track this method, I've also refined my personal approach, which is a bit more nuanced.


I calculate the total difference between my cash and investments now and from 12 months ago, then subtract all forms of income received in the last 12 months (like salaries, other earnings, dividends, etc.). This calculation gives me what I call the Financial Escape Velocity, or in other words, my personal gauge for Financial Independence.


I’m working on reaching FI during 2024 a reality. It will be difficult, but it’s doable. 


Conclusion:

And there you have it – my take on Financial Independence. It's a path filled with learning, growth, and a fair share of excitement. Remember, it's about enjoying the journey as much as reaching the destination. So, keep exploring, keep investing, and let's ride this journey together!.


December 2023

3rd Quarter 2023 Stock Portfolio Update: Riding the Waves of an Unpredictable Market


Hello everyone! It’s that time again to update you on the performance of my personal stock portfolio for the 3rd quarter of 2023. This marks my second quarterly update after discontinuing my monthly reports.


Portfolio Overview

My stock portfolio comprises a diverse range of assets including:

- Tech Giants: $TSLA, $GOOGL, $SHOP, $META

- Consumer Goods: $NKE, $UPS

- Fintech and E-commerce: $MELI, $ABNB, $SQ, $COIN

- Various Others: $ASML.AS, $MC.PA, $ADYEN, $CRWD, etc.


Returns

- Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) since May 2019: 17.49% 

- Quarter returns: -7.13% net 

- Year-To-Date (YTD) returns: +43.28% 


My Largest Positions

1. Tesla ($TSLA): 24.7%

2. Google ($GOOGL): 14.9%

3. Shopify ($SHOP): 14.8%

4. Meta Platforms ($META): 7.7%

5. Nike ($NKE): 4.2%


Commentary: A Hectic Quarter

This quarter was a busy one for me. Perhaps, too busy. I found myself getting a bit too active, making purchases a tad too early and hesitating to cut off some long-standing but non-performing positions. The market, true to form, remained unpredictable.

At the moment, I find myself a bit too invested. My current strategy involves waiting for the market to recover before trimming some positions and potentially adding to existing stocks.


Actions During the Quarter

- Added 80% to my UPS position: Yes, the timing wasn’t great.

- New Positions: Initiated holdings in $BX, $BN, $ORGN, and $ADYEN. The last two were reactionary moves following significant and unexplained drops.

- Exits: Sold off my entire holdings in $MTLS and $SE. I lost faith in their long-term viability.


Winners and Losers of the Quarter

Winners

1. CrowdStrike ($CRWD): +13.96%

2. Google ($GOOGL): +9.32%

3. Airbnb ($ABNB): +7.06%


Losers

1. SolarEdge ($SEDG): -51.86%

2. Square ($SQ): -33.51%

3. Unity ($U): -27.71%


Biggest Winners So Far

1. Tesla ($TSLA): +1567% (CAGR 39%)

2. Shopify ($SHOP): +427% (CAGR 27%)

3. Google ($GOOGL): +99% (CAGR 10%)


What’s Next?

I'm closely watching to sell positions in $U, $SEDG, $PAH3, and possibly trim $SHOP, $SQ, and maybe $TSLA. I’m also considering increasing positions in $NKE, $BAM, $ABNB, and $MC.PA. Looking ahead, I might also start new positions in $P911.DE, $ENPH, or $PSNY.

And that's a wrap for this quarter's report. Until next time, keep investing smartly!

#investinginpublic #quarterreport


October 2023

Navigating the Investing Spectrum: A Journey to a Holistic Approach



Let me take you back to a time when Spain was buzzing with the excitement of the telecom boom. It was the late 90s, and a young teenager was bitten by the investing bug. Eager to seize the opportunity, he dipped his toes into the stock market, hoping to ride the wave of quick gains and easy riches. Little did he know, this experience would become the cornerstone of his investing journey.


With stars in his eyes and optimism in his heart, he decided to invest in TERRA, a telecommunications company that seemed poised for boundless growth. After all, the allure of the telecom boom was hard to resist, and he was believed to have cracked the code to making money in the stock market. However, as the story often goes, reality had other plans.


The telecom bubble burst, leaving him and countless others in financial turmoil. TERRA, once a symbol of potential, became a harsh lesson in the perils of chasing fads and failing to understand the true nature of the businesses behind the stocks. It was a bitter pill to swallow, but he was determined to uncover the secrets to successful investing.


Undeterred by the setback, he embarked on a quest for knowledge. He devoured books on technical analysis, trading strategies, and investment philosophies. He tuned in to radio programs (no podcasts those days), eagerly absorbing every nugget of wisdom shared by seasoned investors. He was determined to understand the intricacies of the market and make more informed decisions.


However, despite his relentless pursuit of expertise, he found himself in a perplexing situation. The more he learned, the more he realized how little he knew. His attempts at trading and timing the market only led to more losses. The excitement that once fueled his investing endeavors was now replaced by frustration and disappointment.


In the midst of this introspection, he decided to give up. He finished an Engineering University degree, worked for others, and started a family. It was then that he recognized entrepreneurship as his true calling. He founded a couple of companies, paid off his mortgage, and found himself at a crossroads—ready to rekindle his passion for investing.


Returning to the world of investing, after many, many years, he embarked on a new chapter. He started with technology and growth stocks, eager to catch the excitement of the market once again. He even delved into Angel Investing, hoping for a different outcome. Yet, these experiences, though challenging, became invaluable lessons that shaped his journey as an investor.


Through ups and downs, he continued to learn. He studied the strategies of history's greatest investors, discovering that the path to wealth was not in quick wins but in patient, long-term thinking. He embraced the philosophy that becoming rich quickly was an illusion, and that the true key was to build wealth slowly and consistently.


His journey eventually led him to a fundamental shift in his approach. He began to invest in value, with a focus on the long term. His goal was to purchase stocks that he could hold onto indefinitely, allowing them to grow steadily over time. He had come full circle, learning that sustainable wealth was built on a foundation of patience, knowledge, and a commitment to continuous learning.


The teenager has become a mature adult and his story is mine. In fact it’s my story with investing.


In the ever-evolving world of investing, finding a path that resonates deeply can be both enlightening and challenging. Over the years, my journey through the intricate landscape of investment strategies has led me to explore a wide spectrum of viewpoints. I've come to appreciate the wisdom and insights of legendary figures like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, as well as the innovative approaches of investors like Cathie Wood. While these might seem like polar opposites, I've discovered that they offer valuable lessons that can harmoniously coexist in a well-rounded investing philosophy.


Embracing Classic Wisdom: Buffett, Munger, and More


The timeless principles laid out by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have been guiding lights for many investors, myself included. Their emphasis on value investing and the importance of long-term focus resonates deeply with my approach. I've found immense value in understanding the intrinsic worth of businesses, seeking quality, and patiently allowing investments to flourish over time.


Moreover, I've gained insights from the meticulous strategies of investors like Monish Pabrai, Howard Marks and Guy Spier. These individuals have honed the art of making well-informed decisions, often relying on extensive research and patience. Their dedication to understanding businesses from the ground up aligns with my belief in the power of knowledge in investing.


Exploring the Cutting Edge: Cathie Wood and Beyond


On the other side of the spectrum, I've found myself captivated by the innovation-driven mindset of Cathie Wood. Her unyielding commitment to exploring emerging technologies and groundbreaking industries reflects a willingness to step into uncharted territory. Cathie's work underscores the significance of staying ahead of the curve and recognizing the transformative potential of disruptive trends.


In my journey, I've also been influenced by the insights of macro forecasters like Raoul Pal. His ability to dissect global economic trends has offered me a broader perspective on the interconnectedness of markets and the forces that shape them.


A Common Thread: Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel, and My Path Forward


As my journey continues, I find my philosophy aligning more closely with investors like Brian Feroldi and Brian Stoffel. Their emphasis on long-term thinking, understanding the businesses they invest in, and the conviction to hold through market fluctuations resonates profoundly with me. While their strategies might diverge, the underlying principles remain steadfast. I find their approach more relatable to my current self. 


Lately, I've been diving deeper into the value investing approach. The principles of seeking intrinsic value, assessing businesses based on their fundamentals, and patiently waiting for the market to recognize their worth have captivated my attention. This journey into value investing has broadened my perspective, allowing me to see the interconnectedness between seemingly opposing strategies.


In Conclusion: A Holistic Approach to Investing


In a world of extremes, my investing philosophy is an evolving tapestry woven from a myriad of influences. It's not about choosing sides, but rather about recognizing the richness that comes from embracing diverse strategies. Value investing and growth-focused strategies are not mutually exclusive; they complement each other in crafting a well-rounded approach to wealth creation.


As I move forward, my aim is to strike a harmonious balance between timeless wisdom and innovative thinking. The journey is ongoing, and I'm excited to continue learning, adapting, and weaving together the threads of insight that come my way. In this ever-shifting landscape, I find solace in my holistic approach—one that draws from the wisdom of legends and the visionaries of tomorrow.


So, whether it's following the footsteps of Howard Marks on the value side or being inspired by the growth-oriented perspective of Cathie Wood, my journey continues to be a blend of thoughtful exploration and embracing the unknown. 


Here's to the adventure ahead! 🌟🚀


September 2023

Reimagining Investing: Learning from Nature's Timeless Wisdom. My summary of "What I learned About Investing from Darwin"



In "What I Learned About Investing from Darwin" Pulak Prasad, an equity fund manager and founder of Nalanda Capital, shares valuable insights on investing inspired by principles from evolutionary theory. Prasad's investment philosophy revolves around being permanent owners of high-quality businesses and minimizing risks before maximizing returns. Drawing parallels between the natural world and the business world, he outlines key lessons for successful investing.


One of the fundamental lessons Prasad derives from evolutionary theory is the importance of avoiding big risks. In nature, living organisms prioritize survival over everything else, and businesses should do the same. To minimize risk, Prasad's team at Nalanda avoids investing in companies with high debt, unaligned owners, or fast-changing industries. They focus on being "better rejectors" by forgoing potentially attractive opportunities if the risk of capital loss is high.


Prasad emphasizes the significance of buying high-quality businesses at a fair price. He believes that a sustained high return on capital employed (ROCE) is a strong indicator of a company's competitive advantage. ROCE serves as a starting point for their analysis, helping them identify businesses with stellar management teams, effective capital allocation, and strong competitive positions.


By focusing on the ultimate causes of business success rather than short-term fluctuations, Prasad applies principles from evolutionary biology. Nalanda ignores proximate causes of stock price movements, such as macroeconomic or industry-related events, and instead focuses on analyzing business fundamentals. This allows them to invest in high-quality businesses during times of market panic, exploiting short-term fluctuations for long-term gains.


Another concept Prasad adopts is "convergence," which involves identifying recurring patterns of success and failure in the business world. By seeking similarities in successful business templates, Nalanda invests in proven businesses rather than individual companies. They use the "outside view" approach, akin to convergence, to avoid falling prey to seeing patterns where none exist and missing unique opportunities.


To differentiate between honest and dishonest signals from businesses, Prasad employs the "handicap principle." Honest signals, similar to costly traits in the natural world, indicate a business's health and robustness. Nalanda relies on past operating and financial performance and corroborating information from various sources to identify these honest signals.


A key principle that sets Nalanda apart is their patience and commitment to long-term investing. Prasad and his team understand the power of compounding and embrace the idea of owning outstanding businesses forever. They avoid selling exceptional businesses even during short-term fluctuations and stay invested to benefit from long-term value creation.


Prasad concludes with a simple and repeatable investment process inspired by honeybees' decision-making approach. The process involves eliminating significant risks, investing in high-quality businesses at fair prices, and holding these businesses forever. Nalanda prioritizes executing their investment process consistently, recognizing that while it does not guarantee success every time, it has proven effective over the long run.


In "What I Learned About Investing from Darwin," Pulak Prasad intertwines principles from evolutionary theory with investment strategies to offer a fresh perspective on successful investing. By drawing lessons from nature and applying them to the financial world, Prasad demonstrates how aligning investment principles with the inherent principles of life can lead to sound investment decisions and long-term wealth creation.


A totally recommended book for those interested in quality and longterm investing as well as the life lessons you can extract from the discipline. 


August 2023

Megacycles, Investment, and Classic Sports Cars: Finding Fortune in the Long Run or playing roulette?



I started liking investing, and now, I love it. As I delved into podcast, interviews or books on investing, such as those listed on https://www.carlescarrera.com/books, and absorbed wisdom from seasoned investors, I discovered that it taught me more about life than I ever imagined. All quality and value investors seem to have figured out how to live on their own terms. 


Another passion of mine is classic sports cars, particularly Porsches. All in all, with my Carrera surname, what else? I own a very modest 20 year old 911 Carrera 996 Generation 4S, a prized possession that has been part of my life for almost 3 years. It's hard not to be tempted by the idea of parting ways with it, especially when life gets busy, and I struggle to find time to enjoy it. But then, an intriguing realization struck me like a bolt of lightning—the car's value has been appreciating over time, almost making the ownership cost negligible as its value rose more than what I spend on maintenance, taxes or insurance. And with that, the decision to keep it was cemented. Kind of.


Now, what's fascinating is that my Porsche is not just a hobby or a material possession; it's an integral part of my investment portfolio. Just like my investments, I want to see it grow in value over the long run.


Speaking of investments, the world of finance can be incredibly complex. Yet, amidst the sea of information and strategies, I've come to realize that following a systematic, analytical, and disciplined approach, even dedicating your full life to analyze investments might only provide a slight advantage over basic principles. Basis principles include investing only in quality, don’t overpay and hold for for the long term. Beyond the core of investing there are other principles. One such principle that has caught my attention is the concept of megacycles. Check graphic here.


Megacycles refer to periodic trends in the market, charting the years of panic and changing trends (beginning of bearish trends), the best times to sell assets at high prices (B point), and the lowest prices to buy assets (beginning of a bull market, C point). The periodicity spans 16/18/20 years (top), 8/9/10 years (mid), and 3-6 / 2-5 / 4-7 years (below).


Back-testing this concept with historical events like the 2000 dotcom Bubble, the 2019-2020 crisis, the 1965 Cuban missile crisis, and the 1981 economic crisis reveals intriguing correlations.


Following this theory, it occurred to me that now might be a propitious moment to consider selling my beloved Porsche in 2023—an opportune C point when the lowest prices occur and the time to buy assets begins and lack of time to properly enjoy such a car as it should be enjoyed. By converting the proceeds into investments, I can embark on a journey to grow my wealth until 2026. During this time, I hope to generate enough capital to not only purchase a superior classic Porsche (I have my eye on the 997 generation, the latest classic in the Porsche family, possibly a GT3 version), but also to prepare for the next C moment in 2032.


However, as much as I believe in the power of megacycles, I also remain humble about the intricacies of the financial world. This strategy might work out splendidly, or it might be a stroke of fortune. After all, I firmly believe that forecasting is a perilous endeavor, and no one can predict the future with certainty. 


And I would not enjoy owning a classic Porsche. A Carrera. 


What would you do?


In conclusion, my passion for investing and classic sports cars has brought me on an incredible journey of learning and growth. While I take inspiration from investment principles like megacycles, I also acknowledge that success in both realms requires patience, diligence, and a willingness to embrace uncertainty. Whether I end up thriving as an investor or merely enjoying my time with classic cars, I cherish the thrill of the adventure and the lessons it imparts.


July 2023

The Power of Simplicity: Unearthing the Fundamentals of Health, Longevity, and Investing




How is achieving financial independence similar to attaining health and longevity? More than you might think. Let's dive into the world where finance meets health.


Parallels Between Health & Investing


Health, longevity, and investing may seem like separate universes, often seen as complex and intimidating fields reserved for experts. However, beneath this surface complexity, these areas are governed by surprisingly straightforward principles.


The Simplicity of Health and Longevity


Health and longevity, while deeply scientific, have fundamental cornerstones that anyone can understand and follow:


1. Quality Sleep: Ensuring you get enough quality sleep is one of the simplest yet most effective steps to good health and longevity. 

2. Regular Exercise: Keeping active daily, irrespective of the intensity or type of activity, directly contributes to a healthier, longer life.

3. Balanced Diet: Nutrition can't be overlooked. Eating a balanced diet nourishes the body and supports all its functions.

4. Stress Management: Chronic stress takes a toll on our well-being. Therefore, regular stress management practices are a must for maintaining health.


These simple yet powerful practices are the bedrock of health and longevity, regardless of the changing trends and advanced scientific studies.


The Fundamentals of Investing


Similarly, value investing and achieving financial independence, despite the myriad of financial theories and models, boil down to a few key principles:


1. Save and Invest: The cornerstone of wealth building lies in saving (spending less than you earn) a portion of your earnings and investing it wisely (making it work for you).

2. Quality Selection: Just as nutrition matters for health, selecting high-quality investments is vital for financial health. 

3. Fair Valuation: An investment's worth isn't just its potential; it's also about ensuring you're not overpaying for it. It's like having a margin of safety.

4. Patience and Inaction: Often the hardest part - once your investments are made, allowing them to grow over time often requires doing nothing. The best investors are the most passive. Give me the name of a rich trader, for each one, I'll give you the name of 100 rich "passive" investor. 


These investing fundamentals remain the same, regardless of market swings or changing economic climates.


The Essence of Mastery: Simple Fundamentals


The crux here is that the keys to both health and financial independence aren't hidden in complexities, but lie in the mastery of basic principles. These principles, or fundamentals, aren't merely starting points but are frameworks that guide us throughout our journey.


Whether it's maintaining a healthy lifestyle, striving for longevity, or pursuing financial independence through investing, we need to look beyond the complexity and focus on understanding and applying these fundamentals. It's not about mastering all the details, but about consistently applying the simple rules and frameworks.


In conclusion, the path to health, longevity, and financial independence is less about complexity and more about understanding and practicing the fundamentals. Both fields, though appearing complex, offer a simplicity that anyone can grasp and apply. After all, it's the simple things, consistently done, that often yield the most profound results. So, embrace these fundamentals and start your journey towards health and wealth.


When the noise gets too much, always remember to go back to basics. The path to health, longevity, and financial independence may seem intricate, but the power of simplicity is undeniable.


July 2023

A Transparent Look into My 2nd Quarter 2023 Stock Portfolio Performance 


As part of my ongoing commitment to transparency and learning, I'm sharing my 2nd Quarter 2023 personal stock portfolio update. My portfolio is diverse, representing various sectors, and includes the following companies: $TSLA, $SHOP, $GOOGL, $META, $NKE, $ASML.AS, $MC.PA, $MELI, $ABNB, $SEDG, $UPS, $BAM, $MTLS, $CRWD, $SQ, $TINY, $COIN, $PAH3, $U, and $SE.

Since I began tracking in May 2019, my portfolio has garnered a net return of 53%, amounting to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.91%. In the second quarter of 2023 alone, the portfolio has grown by a net of 15.44%, making a Year-to-Date (YTD) growth of 59.41%.

The portfolio's heaviest weights are in Tesla ($TSLA, 25.6% of portfolio), Shopify ($SHOP, 17.4%), Alphabet ($GOOGL, 13.6%), Meta ($META, 7.3%), and Nike ($NKE, 4.9%).

Interestingly, despite my intent to adopt a more passive investment strategy, the second quarter ended up being quite an active period. However, it's essential to remember that my approach relies on following a consistent strategy, not market whims. By sticking to a rigorous screening process and acting decisively when the situation fits my checklist, I can maintain a disciplined approach.

During this quarter, I made some significant moves. I doubled my position in Airbnb ($ABNB) and ASML Holding ($ASML.AS). I also increased my position in LVMH ($MC.PA) by 50%. Additionally, I initiated positions in CrowdStrike Holdings ($CRWD) and Tiny Capital ($TINY). Despite the fluctuating market conditions, I made no sales this quarter, an indication of my optimism for the future.

There have been several stand-out performers and some disappointments in the quarter. The winners were Meta ($META, +35.4%), Shopify ($SHOP, +34.8%), and Unity Software ($U, +33.9%). Conversely, the stocks that didn't fare as well were Sea Ltd ($SE, -32.9%), SolarEdge Technologies ($SEDG, -11.5%), and MercadoLibre ($MELI, -10.1%).

Over the course of my tracking period, the biggest winners have been Tesla ($TSLA, +1644%, CAGR 41%), Shopify ($SHOP, +524%, CAGR 32%), and SolarEdge Technologies ($SEDG, +117%, CAGR 26%).

Looking towards the future, I have my eyes set on initiating positions in $BN, $PSNY, $BX, $LILM, $P911.DE, and $ORGN, and am considering increasing my stake in $NKE, $SQ, $COIN, $MELI, and $UPS. On the flip side, I might consider selling $SE, $PAH3.DE, and $MTLS, based on market dynamics and my ongoing evaluation.

Stay tuned for more updates on my portfolio and investment strategy. Remember, investing is a journey, not a destination. Happy investing!


July 2023